As
Labour looks to navigates itself through conference season in Brighton,
it seems an appropriate time to analyze its current footing, as well as
laying out a plan of action designed to calm fraying nerves and boost
flagging activists heading towards 2015. Ed Miliband currently faces several arduous obstacles if he is to
overcome public skepticism. In recent months he has been buffeted by the
not inconsiderable figure of Len McCluskey, disappointing polling news
and internecine party squabbling. David Cameron, on the other hand, is
basking in the glow of recent, more positive economic news, whilst UKIP
continues to prosper backed by its strengthening claims to be the 3rd
party of British politics. Even the much-maligned Lib Dems have been
given a slight poll bounce after their annual conference in Glasgow.
Brighton has been described as ‘shit or bust time’ for Miliband, as he
attempts to present himself as a credible Prime Minister-in-waiting,
with Ed Balls facing his own defining moment, as he looks to persuade
the electorate that Labour can be trusted with the economy.
How has Labour come to find itself in this precarious position?
The
poisonous economic legacy of the 2010 Labour party has prevented
Miliband from gaining any traction when it comes to promoting Labour’s
economic competence. The uncertainty wreaked by the Miliband fratricidal
drama enabled the Coalition to frame public discourse to its advantage.
Cameron’s narrative dictated that it was Labour that had ‘crashed the
car’, and that the two Ed’s could not be returned the keys. Currently,
Osborne is once again framing public debate to his advantage. The
current message being peddled by the coalition is that the upturn in our
economic fortunes vindicates the past 3 years of austerity. This
austerity was necessary because of the economic malevolence of the New
Labour government. Miliband must re-frame the economic debate if he is
to win a workable Labour majority. There are 3 ways in which he can do
so. This article will focus on the first two stages.
1) Rebut the Tory economic narrative
This
reads: Labour destroyed the public finances; the pain you are feeling
now is the essential medicine required to fix their mess. The return of
economic growth vindicates our policy.
Miliband
can de-construct this narrative by re-telling the story of financial
crisis, and the legacy this bestowed upon the current government. Labour
can point to the fact that the Tories backed Brown’s spending plans in
light of the recession. The Tories were also fully behind Brown’s plans
to bailout the banks. Added to this, Britain’s national debt was lower
in 2011 than it had been in most of Britain’s recorded history.
On
a more positive note, as Balls did so in his speech on Monday, Labour
needs to make a point of championing the achievements of 1997-2010 under
the strapline ’10 years of growth and prosperity under Labour.’ Now
that the minimum wage is coming under such scrutiny, it is important to
remind the electorate that it was the work of the Blair government that
introduced the National Minimum Wage act in 1998. Labour needs much more
of this: ‘we
are fighting for all of the low-paid people around our country. One of
the proudest achievements of the last Labour government was the national
minimum wage, making work pay for people.’ Labour
under Blair/Brown also rebuilt a dilapidated public health and
education system neglected by 18 years of Tory rule, lifted 1 million
children out of poverty and re-generated deprived areas throughout
Britain using their New Deal. More championing required.
2) Critiquing Cameron’s economic record
Having
robustly defended his previous exposure to government, Miliband must
then ensure that Labour constructs a coherent critique of the economic
policies of this coalition. This is where Miliband can hit hard by using
the famous Reagan slogan ‘Are you better off than you were four years
ago?’ The answer is a resounding no. Labour needs to hammer home this
message. Our economy’s output is 3% lower than in 2007. The ‘recovery’
has been the slowest in nearly a century, fuelled by questionable
housing policies. Energy bills are rising while energy firms rake in
record profits. Our standard of living is in free fall. For 38/39 months
of the Cameron premiership, prices have risen as wages have fallen.
Come 2015, the average person will be £1,500 worse off than they were in
2010. There are 1 million people between the ages 16-24 who do not have
a job. By constantly reminding the electorate of the varied failures of
the coalition, Miliband can ensure that he remains on the right side of
the cost of living debate.
What
remains is to lay out a credible alternative to austerity. Following
Miliband’s speech yesterday, I will focus solely on this alternative in
my next posting. I’ll leave you with this:
